Articles Tagged "Winter 2011-12"

Yet another long range forecasting agency has pinned its colours to the mast by predicting a colder than average winter 2011-12 across Ireland and the United Kingdom.

UK-based Positive Weather Solutions says the winter months will be colder than average everywhere and that some regions will experience significantly colder than average temperatures between December and March.

The agency, which has a relatively high success rate in its long range weather predictions, has also given a 36% chance of the Ireland and Britain experiencing a White Christmas. This prediction in reflected in the latest odds from Paddy Power Bookmakers who on Sunday shortened their odds of snow falling on Christmas Day to 11/4 in in London and 7/2 in Dublin.

The chilly outlook follows six weeks after another UK-based long range weather forecaster, also issued a severe winter weather warning. James Madden from weather organisation Exacta Weather is once again forecasting record breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures during November, December and January.

Click source to read FULL report from Mark Dunphy

Forecaster issues dire weather warning for upcoming season.

Ireland is going to be snowed in again this winter – and for many years to come according to a world renowned weather expert.

Long range forcecaster James Madden has predicted another ice age winter for Ireland after record snow levels in December and January.

The Exacta Weather expert has warned that Ireland will experience record low temperatures and huge snowfalls again this winter.

The Irish Examiner reports that a drastic alteration in the flow of the Gulf Stream coupled with Icelandic volcano eruptions and low solar activity are combining to lead to the severe weather warning.

Click source to read FULL Early USA Winter Forecast for 2011-12 from AccuWeather

Reference

Lockwood, M., Harrison, R.G., Woolings, T. and Solanki, S.K. 2010. Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? Environmental Research Letters 5: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001.

What was done

Noting that "solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century," and that "the Maunder minimum (about 1650-1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe," the authors write that "motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK," they investigated the possible connection between these severe winters and low solar activity, identifying "regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature."

What was learned

Lockwood et al. discovered that "cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend" do indeed "occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic," and they state that "colder UK winters (relative to the longer-term trend) can therefore be associated with lower open solar flux (and hence with lower solar irradiance and higher cosmic ray flux)." They are quick to note, however, that "this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect."

A UK-based long range weather forecaster has issued a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012. The advisory has been issued following one of the coldest winters experienced in Ireland and Britain more than 45 years.

James Madden from weather organisation Exacta Weather correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years, and is once again forecasting record breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures during November, December and January.

One of Madden’s primary methods of analysing long range weather conditions is his analysis of solar cycles. Last week Irish Weather Online carried a story from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) stating that a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles are signs that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years.

Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results: “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.