Articles Tagged "Joseph D'Aleo"

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Arctic Temperatures and Ice – Why it is Natural Variability by Joseph D’Aleo
Monday, November 1st 2010, 8:25 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
On October 21st the Associated Press hit the wires with a story entitled Sea Ice Melting as Arctic Temperatures Rise.

The temperatures in the arctic have indeed risen in recent years and ice has declined, bottoming out in 2007 but it is not unprecedented nor unexpected. The arctic temperatures and arctic ice extent varies in a very predictable 60-70 year cycle that relates to ocean cycles which are likely driven by solar changes.

In 2007, NASA scientists stated that after years of research, their team had assembled data showing that normal, decade-long changes in Arctic Ocean currents driven by a circulation known as the Arctic Oscillation was largely responsible for the major Arctic climate shifts observed over the past several years. These periodic reversals in the ocean currents move warmer and cooler water around to new places, greatly affecting the climate. (The AO was at a record low level last winter explaining the record cold and snow in middle latitudes. A strongly negative AO pushes the coldest air well south while temperatures in the Polar Regions are warmer than normal under blocking high pressure).

We agree. And indeed both oceans play a role. In the record-setting (since satellite monitoring began in 1979) summer melt season of 2007, NSIDC noted the importance of both oceans in the arctic ice.

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2009/10 Winter El Nino Very Different from 1997/98 by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM
Saturday, October 23rd 2010, 10:05 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Drew Shindell, NASA modeller who works with James Hansen showed here in a paper in Science (2001) how low solar periods with reduced ultraviolet leads to less ozone chemistry warming in high altitudes over low and mid latitudes. This apparently allows for cooling and expansion of the polar vortex and more blocking in high latitudes (a negative NAO/AO).

Here Shindell shows the difference between the Maunder Minimum temperatures of 1680 and those of much more active sun period 1780. You clearly see the negative NAO and AO and a cold winter in the continents in the low sun period.

Writing in Environmental Research Letters (2010), Mike Lockwood et al. have verified that solar activity does seem to have a direct correlation with Earth's climate by influencing North Atlantic blocking (NAO) as Shindell has shown.

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Will the hemisphere see another top ten snow season? by Joseph D'Aleo
Tuesday, September 28th 2010, 7:38 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Will the hemisphere see another top ten snow season?

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