NOAA released their 2011-2012 winter outlook today, and by the looks of it, their forecast calls for more of the same for many parts of the country as La Nina is expected to influence weather patterns across the United States for the second winter in a row. The Arctic Oscillation will play the wild card that could produce dramatic temperature swings across the lower 48 this winter.
Here is what NOAA released earlier today for the coming winter:
ABNORMALLY COLD OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, AN INCREASE IN BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND THE OBSERVED ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC INDICATE THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS EXIST. IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA ARE LIKELY DURING THE AUTUMN, WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS.
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR NDJ 2011-12 SHOWS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
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BELOW-MEDIAN SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE CAROLINAS. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE LIKELIHOODS OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION ARE SIMILAR TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE ARE INDICATED.
FOR THE WINTER, BELOW NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, THE WEST COAST AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.. THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND MUCH OF THE GULF COAST.
FOR PRECIPITATION, ABOVE MEDIAN SEASONAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AREAS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
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Source Link: examiner.com/