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Piers Corbyn: What’s all this about a Cold Autumn & Winter?
Thursday, September 22nd 2011, 10:21 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentBRITAIN FACES AN EARLY BIG FREEZE by Nathan Rao - Daily Express

BRITAIN was warned yesterday of another big freeze this winter – with snow expected to sweep in as early as next month. Temperatures are forecast to drop to below average for the time of year over the next few months. The early onset of winter was predicted by experts at Exacta Weather. Long-range forecaster James Madden said on its website: “As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.

“I expect December, January, and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to ­January across many parts of the UK.” The UK and Ireland would be hit by ­“prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop”. Mr Madden said: “Huge swirly low-­pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air.”.. click above Daily Express link to read FULL report from Nathan Rao.

Piers Corbyn: “It’s baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes”

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The Daily Express 20 Sept and various media scream “Experts predict a cold Autumn & Winter” - based on the meanderings of a gaggle of would-be forecasters, none of whom have an independent track record of significant long-range success – Exacta Weather (experts in promoting cold-weather tyres), NetWeather, Weather Services International and Positive Weather Solutions(the ‘experts’ who promised a ‘hottest summer ever’).

“First Up”, said Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, worldleaders in long range weather forecasting - who unlike all others have independently proven significant skill: “Their forecast of a cold & dry* October will fail. It will be generally WET & MILD, with significant divisions across the UK and two dangerous storm periods at known dates in our forecast available to subscribers (box).

(Forecast 85% confidence) (*PWS at least say dry).

“If any of these 4 ‘Experts’ start ‘predicting’ when one of these storms is coming (before it’s on a weather-map) we might guess where they got the idea from

What about this winter?

The lack of independently proven skill of the Express’ 4 ‘Experts’ means their forecast can only turn out correct by luck or if it is a copy of one that works.

In terms of skill it should be noted the last two winters have 4 possible patterns: cold-cold, cold-warm, warmcold and warm-warm. Of 4 guessers one should be right and this is the claimed skill base of these 4 ‘experts’ - one claims this ‘skill’.

“The Express /Mail etc ‘forecast’ is short on detail and slithery on timing so aspects of it might, after the Winter appear to work by luck but frankly if anyone wants a reliable detailed long-range forecast for Brit/Ire, Europe or USA there is only one place to come. WeatherAction forecasts contain 1000 times more detail than this gang of 4’s word-salad and have unbeaten proven skill.

“But lets’ be fair there is nothing wrong with anyone, qualified or not, attempting to forecast the weather and talking about it, but the Express, Mail and others hype up the qualities of their ‘Experts’; Mr Madden, eg, of Exacta is an unqualified geographer; and more shamefully the Express promotes this wild speculation as if it had substance beyond a game of ‘Spot the ball’.

Click source to read FULL report from Piers Corbyn and
Source Link: (PDF download No. 21)