Articles Tagged "Winter 2011-12"

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The outlook for winter 2011-2012 by Kirk Melhuish, Atlanta Weather Examiner
Friday, October 21st 2011, 12:10 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
WSB Meteorologist has released his winter outlook, we quote it here:

It is worth noting that Metro Atlanta has now experienced three consecutive winters with significant 3 inch+ snowfalls, you have to go back to 1892 to 1895 to find the same thing.

According to Klause Wolter of the CDC: “The current rank of the MEI has dropped further from 16th last month to 13th this month, just a little weaker than moderate La Niña rankings. The 2010-11 portion of this La Niña event had been classified as strong (top 6 rankings since 1950) from July-August 2010 through March-April 2011, tied with 1975-76 for 2nd place in terms of strong duration, and only behind 1955-56 (15 months).

ENSO is comprised of both El Nino and La Nina and La Nada or neutral phases. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Here we attempt to monitor ENSO by basing the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C).


Click source to read FULL report from Kirk Melhuish
Source Link: examiner.com
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Severe Weather Warning Issued For Winter 2011-12 by Mark Dunphy
Saturday, June 25th 2011, 5:32 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
A UK-based long range weather forecaster has issued a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012. The advisory has been issued following one of the coldest winters experienced in Ireland and Britain more than 45 years.

James Madden from weather organisation Exacta Weather correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years, and is once again forecasting record breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures during November, December and January.

One of Madden’s primary methods of analysing long range weather conditions is his analysis of solar cycles. Last week Irish Weather Online carried a story from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) stating that a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles are signs that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years.

Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results: “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.
Source Link: irishweatheronline.com
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It's here! England's first snowfall in Cumbria... and more is on the way this weekend by Emily Allen
Friday, December 2nd 2011, 9:33 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
#Severe weather warning issued for northern Scotland as snow expected Sunday and Monday .

#Snow also lay on the peaks of Snowdonia for the first time this winter.


Winter's first snow flakes have fallen in the north of England and more of the white stuff is on its way this weekend say forecasters.

As much of the country awoke to a crisp, frosty morning, in the South Tyne Valley snow quickly blanketed the ground and blizzards greeted those who ventured outdoors.

Snow also lay on the peaks of Snowdonia today for the first time this winter.

The Met Office has issued a severe weather warning for northern Scotland warning residents to brace themselves for snow on Sunday and Monday. Snow could also make an appearance across the Pennines.


Click source to read FULL report from Emily Allen
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk
USA Long-range winter forecast is updated by Vicki Rock
Friday, December 2nd 2011, 8:20 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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SOMERSET -— Apparently 'tis not the season for those who are fond of snowy weather.

On Thursday AccuWeather released an updated winter outlook that backs off the idea that December will get the winter off to a snowy start.

"That's out the window," Paul Pastelok, chief long-range forecaster, said in a written release.

Snowfall this season is likely to be near to below normal in the mid-Atlantic region, with temperatures averaging above normal. Pastelok sees a season in which winter storms tend to cut toward the Great Lakes rather than blow up off the East Coast. That would keep the region on the warm side of storms.

Meteorologist Meghan Evans said the worst snow and cold will be in the Midwest and interior Northwest. Chicago and Minneapolis will lie in the heart of this zone.
Source Link: dailyamerican.com
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Prepare for extra-heavy dose of snow, climatologist warns
Friday, November 18th 2011, 11:52 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Canadians may have to wait longer for the full, frigid effects of winter this year but chilly weather is still on its way, an Environment Canada climatologist has warned.

"We've never cancelled winter in this country. We're not going to do it this year," David Phillips told CTV News Channel on Thursday.

When winter finally blankets Canada, Phillips said colder-than-usual weather is expected courtesy of a natural phenomenon known as "La Nina."

Known as the opposite of El Ninos, La Nina is characterized by chillier sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Phillips said those conditions will result in an extra-heavy dose of winter snow for Canada.

"There's a choreography that exists between what the ocean temperatures are like and the air above it," Phillips told CTVNews.ca. "Ultimately, La Nina tends to force Arctic air down deeper into the heart of North America

Click source to read FULL report
Source Link: edmonton.ctv.ca/
Early Winter Snowfall Predicted For Ireland And UK by Mark Dunphy
Sunday, September 4th 2011, 12:28 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
A long range weather forecaster is predicting an early start to winter 2011-2012 for many regions of the United Kingdom and Ireland. James Madden of Exacta Weather says heavy snowfalls are likely in places as soon as late October and early November.

Last week, UK-based Positive Weather Solutions also predicted that the winter months will be colder than average everywhere and that some regions will experience significantly colder than average temperatures between December and March.

The agency, which has a relatively high success rate in its long range weather predictions, has also given a 36% chance of the Ireland and Britain experiencing a White Christmas. This prediction in reflected in the latest odds from William Hill Bookmakers who have given shortened odds of snow falling on Christmas Day.

The bookmaker have also given odds of 16/1 that the lowest recorded temperature in England will be beaten (-26.1C, Jan 10 1982, Shropshire), and even odds of 100/1 that Big Ben Fails to chime due to being frozen solid and that the Thames will freeze over between Westminster Bridge and Tower Bridge.

The chilly long range forecasts also follow the coolest summer since 1986 in many parts of Ireland and since 1962 in parts of the southwest. The highest temperature recorded this summer was 25.5°C at Oak Park, Co. Carlow on the 3rd of June.
Source Link: irishweatheronline.com
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Nor’easter: Biggest October Storm in NYC History? by Ben Forer
Saturday, October 29th 2011, 2:30 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
A rare October Nor’easter that is forecast to hit at least 10 states from North Carolina to Maine starting Saturday morning has the potential to be the biggest October storm in New York City history, according to AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Paul Walker.

“The record for snow in October for New York City is .8 inches set on Oct. 30, 1925,” said Walker. “This has the possibility to beat that.”

Inland communities will bear the brunt of the storm with heavy wet snow forecast to fall starting in the afternoon from Virginia, West Virginia and Pennsylvania to Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Areas near Springfield, Mass., could see as much as 10 inches of snow.

Major cities up and down the coast can expect to see a chilly rain on Saturday morning that changes to snow in the evening.


Click source to read FULL report by Ben Forer
Source Link: abcnews.go.com
NOAA Issues La Nina Focused Winter Weather 2011-2012 Outlook by H. Michael Mogil
Sunday, October 23rd 2011, 3:42 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Predicted winter temperature pattern for the U.S. based on La Nina winter conditions. Warm weather is likely across the Southern Plains; chilly temperatures can be expected along the West Coast and along the northern states into the Great Lakes. Credit: NOAA/NWS

On Thursday, October 20, 2011, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its weather outlook for the period December 2011 through February 2012 (meteorological winter). Meteorological seasons begin on the first day of the month in which astronomical winter begins.

Overall, it’s an easy to understand forecast. La Nina hasn’t gone away and is, in fact, going to strengthen a bit. This keeps the southern jet stream across the U.S. weaker than might otherwise be expected. It is also linked to a stronger western U.S. upper level ridge and a deeper trough in the region from the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians.

Click source to read FULL report from H. Michael Mogil
Source Link: examiner.com
NOAA releases 2011-2012 winter outlook by Brent McGrady, Environmental News Examiner
Friday, October 21st 2011, 12:14 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
NOAA released their 2011-2012 winter outlook today, and by the looks of it, their forecast calls for more of the same for many parts of the country as La Nina is expected to influence weather patterns across the United States for the second winter in a row. The Arctic Oscillation will play the wild card that could produce dramatic temperature swings across the lower 48 this winter.

Here is what NOAA released earlier today for the coming winter:

ABNORMALLY COLD OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, AN INCREASE IN BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE OCEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND THE OBSERVED ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC INDICATE THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS EXIST. IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA ARE LIKELY DURING THE AUTUMN, WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS.

THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR NDJ 2011-12 SHOWS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
Source Link: examiner.com/
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Piers Corbyn: What’s all this about a Cold Autumn & Winter?
Thursday, September 22nd 2011, 10:21 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentBRITAIN FACES AN EARLY BIG FREEZE by Nathan Rao - Daily Express

BRITAIN was warned yesterday of another big freeze this winter – with snow expected to sweep in as early as next month. Temperatures are forecast to drop to below average for the time of year over the next few months. The early onset of winter was predicted by experts at Exacta Weather. Long-range forecaster James Madden said on its website: “As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.

“I expect December, January, and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to ­January across many parts of the UK.” The UK and Ireland would be hit by ­“prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop”. Mr Madden said: “Huge swirly low-­pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air.”.. click above Daily Express link to read FULL report from Nathan Rao.

Piers Corbyn: “It’s baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes”
Source Link: weatheraction.com (PDF download No. 21)
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