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UK Met Office Pours Cold Water On Severe Winter 2011-12 Forecasts by Mark Dunphy
Saturday, October 15th 2011, 12:00 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
The UK Met Office has distanced itself from recent media reports that the UK and Ireland are set for an ‘Arctic Winter’. The UKMO, which stopped issuing seasonal forecasts in 2010, also has said that recent long range forecasts by other agencies “bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting”.

iWeather Online (IWO) also has forecast that Ireland and the UK are unlikely to see a repeat of the pre-Christmas freeze of 2010. Temperatures are expected to remain below average for much of the coming season, however, according to the IWO forecast.

In an opinion piece for The Times, UKMO Chief Executive John Hirst called for a sense of reason in response to the claims (read 1, 2, 3) of other forecasting agencies in weeks.
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Sun's 11-year cycle means we're in for Arctic freeze this winter, say scientists by Leon Watson
Monday, October 10th 2011, 11:46 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Study measures sun's UV radiation to 'predict' seasons

First-ever 'high-resolution' scan of solar radiation

Cycle's effect on weather 'greater than first thought'

This year's low radiation makes for cold Easterly winds

It's been a lovely Indian summer - but it could come back to bite us.

That's what scientists predict after working out the first ever pattern of activity for the sun.

According to research, the sun runs on an 11-year cycle - and this affects winter weather over the northern hemisphere.
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Brrr-ace yourselves! Britain to shiver in -20C in WEEKS as councils stockpile extra grit by Emily Allen
Sunday, October 9th 2011, 12:19 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
1.4million tonnes of salt has been ordered this year

Snow already falling in Scotland

Temperatures in London today are 16.5C lower than last week

Britain is just weeks away from being in the grip of temperatures as low as -20C, forecasters have predicted.

Parts of Britain already saw snow this week, with two inches falling in the Cairngorms in Scotland.

The rest of Britain is being warned to brace itself for wintry conditions and falling snow from the beginning of November.

And it looks like the colder weather is already on its way - as temperatures today plunged in certain areas to just 8C - a staggering 21.5C below last weekend's record highs - with the wind chill making it feel decidedly colder

In central London today readings of 13C were recorded, in Macduff, Aberdeenshire, the mercury plummeted to 8C, while Plymouth, in Devon, was comparatively basking in 16C of heat.
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Winter forecast: Brutal cold, snow for Midwest by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
Wednesday, October 5th 2011, 5:52 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Image: AccuWeather

Another punishing winter is likely for the north-central USA, according to a forecast released today by the private weather forecasting firm AccuWeather.

While the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic shouldn't see a winter as severe as last year, bitterly cold blasts of arctic air are expected in the northern Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes in December and January, with above-average snowfall, according to AccuWeather long-range meteorologist Paul Pastelok.

Chicago, which endured several blizzards last winter, could be one of the hardest-hit U.S. cities in terms of both snow and cold, he says.

In the South, there is little hope for Texas to escape its epic drought this winter, as below-average precipitation is predicted for most of the state.

Click sorce to read FULL report from Doyle Rice
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AccuWeather: This winter to be much like the last by Dawn Rhodes
Wednesday, October 5th 2011, 10:04 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
But not all prognosticators agree

If you're hoping for a reprieve from heavy snowfall in Chicago this winter, you may be out in the cold.

Meteorologists at predict that Chicago will get between 50 and 58 inches of snow this winter, on par with last winter's total of 57.9 inches.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok said colder-than-average weather will hit harder in December and January, then ease slightly in February. However, the snow will be more evenly distributed throughout the season, rather than falling in crippling bunches like February's Groundhog Day blizzard, Pastelok said.

"It doesn't mean we're going to have an exact replica of last year," Pastelok said, "but it's going to be similar."

Click source to read FULL report from Dawn Rhodes
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Summer 2011/2012 weather forecast by Nathalie Fernbach
Tuesday, October 4th 2011, 10:41 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
With a La Nina system dominating weather patterns again this year, summer 2011/2012 is forecast to be another wet one.

After last summer's devastating conditions many Queenslanders will be hoping for something a little milder this year.

Forecasts indicate another La Nina pattern will again bring a wetter than average summer, but things shouldn't get quite as hairy as last wet season says Townsville weather bureau forecaster Doug Fraser.

"It is actually quite common that a strong La Nina will be followed by a weaker one, so it is not unusual to see that happening and generally as we are predicting it is not quite as bad a season as the preceding one."

The La Nina pattern would suggest an earlier start to the summer rains again this year, however in comparison to last year's record September rainfall, things are running a bit behind says Mr Fraser.

Click source to read FULL report from Nathalie Fernbach
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Blame an anticipated colder, snowier winter on effects of La Nina by Meg Jones
Monday, October 3rd 2011, 1:19 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
MILWAUKEE – The Pacific Ocean near the equator is gradually cooling, and that could mean another cold and snowy winter in Wisconsin.

Forecasters are predicting another La Nina winter, an unusual occurrence since last winter was also under the influence of La Nina.

While it’s always difficult to predict weather, La Nina winters are noted for below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall.

"One thing that you can usually count on in La Nina winters – the chance of it being milder than average is pretty low," said Jeff Craven, science and operations officer at the National Weather Service office in Sullivan, Wis. "Someone looking to wear shorts this winter will have to go south of here."

There have been only four consecutive La Nina winters in the last six decades. Records of the weather phenomenon date to 1950

Click source to read FULL report from Meg Jones
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Are we set for a long, cold Winter? by Adrian Lee
Friday, September 23rd 2011, 3:23 PM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
THE leaves haven’t yet fallen from the trees and the forecasters are already predicting a bleak start to winter.

After one last sunshine bonanza at the end of next week, when the mercury is set to nudge the mid-20Cs, it will be time to batten down the hatches. According to several forecasters, if you thought last year was bad you ain’t seen nothing yet. Snow by the end of October is just one of the gloomy predictions unveiled in the latest batch of attentiongrabbing long-range forecasts.

The weather is now big business, worth an estimated £500million to companies now rivalling the Met Office and playing a key role in the economy. There’s huge pressure to gaze into the future, allowing us all to make plans. In fact, some companies are now producing forecasts for the next nine months, although stressing they can only be a guide. With the British weather notoriously fickle and prone to change over a matter of hours, how on earth can the forecasters look so far ahead?

It’s done by studying a complex mix of factors, including previous conditions at any given time of year. Even now the temperature of the sea surface in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean will have an impact on the British winter to come. If it falls lower than normal for several months, the phenomenon is known as La Niña. The most dramatic effects are seen nearby but La Niña can have an impact on weather thousands of miles away. It influences the jet stream, an intense upper air current that helps the creation of the low pressure fronts which sweep across Britain from the Atlantic, normally bringing wet, mild weather.

Click source to read several forecasts inc. Piers Corbyn
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Piers Corbyn: What’s all this about a Cold Autumn & Winter?
Thursday, September 22nd 2011, 10:21 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentBRITAIN FACES AN EARLY BIG FREEZE by Nathan Rao - Daily Express

BRITAIN was warned yesterday of another big freeze this winter – with snow expected to sweep in as early as next month. Temperatures are forecast to drop to below average for the time of year over the next few months. The early onset of winter was predicted by experts at Exacta Weather. Long-range forecaster James Madden said on its website: “As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.

“I expect December, January, and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to ­January across many parts of the UK.” The UK and Ireland would be hit by ­“prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop”. Mr Madden said: “Huge swirly low-­pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air.”.. click above Daily Express link to read FULL report from Nathan Rao.

Piers Corbyn: “It’s baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes”
Source Link: (PDF download No. 21)
Severe Weather Conditions Predicted to Return This Winter by Rita O'Connor
Thursday, September 22nd 2011, 10:07 AM GMT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Mr James Madden from Electra Weather, who has predicted another harsh winter for Ireland for 2011, has also predicted unusual wind strengths for this autumn, which he says will result in possible damaging gale force winds.

According to Electra Weather there will also be an early start to winter as the weather turns progressively colder with heavy snowfalls between November to January. They have concerns as to the huge implications this may pose to infrastructure and Ireland’s transportation systems/economy.

Communications Officer for the Dublin Met Office said that “these predictions could be right, but equally they could be wrong, its guess work.” The Met Office spokesperson added that their office in Dublin doesn’t make long range weather forecasts and never have.

According to Exacta Weather, they base their predictions on low solar activity and ocean behaviour which alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall and extreme cold.

Click source to read FULL report from Rita O'Connor
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